http://www.jurojinweekly.comTyche Research provide consistently profitable discretionary signals for futures traders in Single-Stock Futures, Currencies, Commodities, Stock Index, and Interest Rates.en-USFri, 21 Nov 2008 14:32:02 GMTCopyright 2005-2006 Tyche Research. See http://www.jurojinweekly.com/go/about/terms.aspx for terms of use.http://www.jurojinweekly.com/go/library/updates.aspx180http://76.12.206.76/img/jurojin-name.jpghttp://www.jurojinweekly.comhttp://www.jurojinweekly.com/go/library/update.aspx?UpdateID=477November 20, 2008 Daily Activity: There was no actionable activity in the portfolio today. Now, let’s look at your open positions. Hold: Orange Juice: January 2009 Orange Juice 175 calls (OJF9175C) @ 5.25: No Stop: Profit-targets: PT1=7.50 ($1,125); PT2=10.50 ($1,575) The Juice market marked time today and traded mostly sideways. The January contract closed 25 ticks higher. It was encouraging that Juice held value as commodities in general continue to feel the pain of a sick equity market. This option settled at 0.05. Hold Hold: December 2008 Live Cattle 110 calls (LCZ8C110) @ 2.80 points ($1120) No Stop. Profit-targets: PT1=5.60 ($2,240); PT2=7.00 ($2,800) Cattle closed 160 points higher today as traders covered short positions. As the market trended higher a round of stop loss buying ensued. This option was inactive today. Hold. Hold: February 2009 Crude Oil 110 calls (CLG9C110) @ 100 No Stop. Profit-targets: PT1=230 ($2,300); PT2=360 ($3,600) Crude oil closed below the all-important $50.00 mark today as legislatures debate the merits of bailing out the auto industry. This option last traded at 0.10. Hold Hold: March 2009 Coffee (KCH9) future @ 118.85 (Currently at 117.45) (Initial Margin $4,900) Temporary Stop=110.10 ($3282) Profit-targets: PT1=129.85 ($4125) March coffee sold off 295 ticks after failing to stay above yesterdays low. Sell stops were triggered as recent longs exited the market. March coffee last traded at 111.10 Hold Hold: January e-mini S&P future call option with a strike of 975 (ESF9C975) and sell one (1) January e-mini S&P future call option with a strike of 1010 (ESF9C1010) at a net price of 18.5 ($925). No Stop. Profit-target: PT1=27.75 (net gain of $462.50) The equity markets traded both sides of unchanged in early trade. Mid-day the selling accelerated as the credit turmoil and further deterioration of the auto industry took center stage. This spread last traded at 6.25. Hold Hold: July 2009 cotton put option (CTN9P40) @ 4.00Stop= No Stop. Profit-target: PT1=5.22 (Gain of $610) Cotton followed grain markets lower today as traders continue to sell commodities as equities tumble. This option last traded at 3.50. Hold Hold: December British pound future (BPZ8) @ 1.4975 Initial margin: $4,950 Stop: 1.4725 (loss: $1,562.50 per contract) Profit-target: PT1=1.5475 ($3,125) The Pound sold off today as trader anticipate further rate cuts will come sooner rather than later. The pound last traded at 1.4755. Hold http://www.jurojinweekly.com/go/library/update.aspx?UpdateID=476November 19, 2008 Daily Activity: There was no actionable activity in the portfolio today. Now, let’s look at your open positions. Hold: Orange Juice: January 2009 Orange Juice 175 calls (OJF9175C) @ 5.25: No Stop: Profit-targets: PT1=7.50 ($1,125); PT2=10.50 ($1,575) The Juice market just can’t catch a bid. As the economy declines, so does Juice consumption. Many consider it a discretionary item. This option settled at 0.05. Hold Hold: December 2008 Live Cattle 110 calls (LCZ8C110) @ 2.80 points ($1120) No Stop. Profit-targets: PT1=5.60 ($2,240); PT2=7.00 ($2,800) Cattle shed 2.95 points today as traders eyed falling equity prices. This option didn’t trade today. Hold Hold: February 2009 Crude Oil 110 calls (CLG9C110) @ 100 No Stop. Profit-targets: PT1=230 ($2,300); PT2=360 ($3,600) Crude oil traders have been selling into rallies and the market feel like it wants to test the $50.00 mark as worldwide demand wanes. This option last traded at 0.09. Hold Hold: March 2009 Coffee (KCH9) future @ 118.85 (Currently at 117.45) (Initial Margin $4,900) Temporary Stop= 110.10 ($3282) Profit-targets: PT1=129.85 ($4125) March coffee last traded 50 ticks lower at 114.10. Reports are starting to surface of deteriorating crop yields. Hold Hold: January e-mini S&P future call option with a strike of 975 (ESF9C975) and sell one (1) January e-mini S&P future call option with a strike of 1010 (ESF9C1010) at a net price of 18.5 ($925). No Stop. Profit-target: PT1=27.75 (net gain of $462.50) The equity markets are in the process of trying to find a tradable bottom which has not occurred. Continued bad news from Washington regarding the credit situation is weighing on prices. This spread was last quoted at 9.25. Hold Hold: July 2009 cotton put option (CTN9P40) @ 4.00 Stop=No Stop. Profit-target: PT1=5.22 (Gain of $610) Cotton last traded 47 ticks lower as demand is diminishing amid a global slowdown. This option was inactive today. Hold Hold: December British pound future (BPZ8) @ 1.4975 Initial margin: $4,950 Stop: 1.4725 (loss: $1,562.50 per contract) Profit-target: PT1=1.5475 ($3,125) The Pound rallied to 10 day moving average and traders sold against this line. The pound is currently trading at 1.4968. Hold http://www.jurojinweekly.com/go/library/update.aspx?UpdateID=475Daily Update Both of this week’s trades were filled today. July Cotton Put: Buy One (1) July 2009 cotton put option (CTN9P40) @ 4.00 ($2,000 per contract) Stop= No Stop. Profit-target: PT1 =5.22 (Gain of $610). July cotton rallied to 44.23 late in the session. Hold. December British Pound: Buy ONE December British pound future (BPZ8) @ 1.4975 Initial margin: $4,950 Stop: 1.4725 (loss: $1,562.50 per contract) Profit-target: PT1=1.5475 ($3,125). The dollar gained during the morning session as stocks weakened creating a favorable environment for risk aversion trades. But stocks ended on a positive note and the dollar and yen gave it all back. You were filled at our recommended entry price while the pound closed at $1.4945 at the close. Hold. We’ll be back in action Wednesday with a full round-up. Good luck! http://www.jurojinweekly.com/go/library/update.aspx?UpdateID=474November 13, 2008 Daily Portfolio Activity: Equity markets continue to exhibit extreme volatility. After showing weakness and looking like the wheels were going fall off, the equities put together a classic bear market rally this afternoon. The continued carnage of the stocks market has taken a toll on commodity markets. This morning Soybeans felt the weight of falling stock prices and sold off. You should have been stopped out of your January position. The fill price is being recorded at 887.0 which represent a loss of $1500.00 per contract before commission. Be sure to cancel any orders associated with this trade. Hold: Orange Juice: January 2009 Orange Juice 175 calls (OJF9175C) @ 5.25: No Stop: Profit-targets: PT1=7.50 ($1,125); PT2=10.50 ($1,575) Orange Juice closed 60 ticks higher in thin trade. The lack of fresh news has led to low volume choppy trade. Traders are watching the development of a storm in the Caribbean. This market will continue to take it cues from outside markets until fresh news develops. The option settled at 0.05 Hold. Hold: December 2008 Live Cattle 110 calls (LCZ8C110) @ 2.80 points ($1120) No Stop. Profit-targets: PT1=5.60 ($2,240); PT2=7.00 ($2,800) Cattle caught a bid early as reports of good box beef demand are on traders minds. The strength was tempered as equity markets take center stage. This option was inactive and was last offered at 0.50. Hold Hold: February 2009 Crude Oil 110 calls (CLG9C110) @ 100 No Stop. Profit-targets: PT1=230 ($2,300); PT2=360 ($3,600) Crude oil reversed course today and came back up to test the $60.00 mark. A late day surge in stocks helped crude oil hold on to its gains. This option settled at 0.35. Hold Hold: March 2009 Coffee (KCH9) future @ 118.85 (Currently at 117.45) (Initial Margin $4,900) Temporary Stop=110.10 ($3282) Profit-targets: PT1=129.85 ($4125) March coffee closed 0.95 lower today. After rallying early in the session traders took profits as they watched the equity roller-coaster grind lower. March coffee last traded at 115.45. Hold Hold: January e-mini S&P future call option with a strike of 975 (ESF9C975) and sell one (1) January e-mini S&P future call option with a strike of 1010 (ESF9C1010) at a net price of 18.5 or better ($925). No Stop. Profit-target: PT1=27.75 (net gain of $462.50) S&P`s posted a big reversal today soaring over 54 points. More impressively they settled 75 points off the lows on good volume. This is type of price action that bottoms are carved out of. Stay tuned! The spread last traded at 6.50. Hold Stopped Out: January 2009 soybean future (S F9) @ 917 (Initial Margin $4,725 per contract) Stop=887 ($1,500) Profit-target: PT1=952 ($2,000) You should have been stopped out of this position this morning as beans sold off on influences from outside markets. Be sure to cancel any orders associated with this trade. http://www.jurojinweekly.com/go/library/update.aspx?UpdateID=473November 12, 2008 DAILY PORTFOLIO ACTIVITY: The Yen rallied today as concerns over lower growth prompted traders to buy the yen and sell the euro currency against it. This is further unwinding of the carry trade. This rally should have stopped you out of your Yen position. The fill is being scored at a price of 104.02. Getting stopped out of a trade is always a bitter pill to swallow but risk must be managed especially in these volatile times. The Yen is currently trading at 105.15. This represents a loss of $2525.00 per contract before commissions. Be sure to cancel any other orders associated with this trade. Hold: Orange Juice: January 2009 Orange Juice 175 calls (OJF9175C) @ 5.25: No Stop: Profit-targets: PT1=7.50 ($1,125); PT2=10.50 ($1,575) Orange Juice traded 20 ticks lower in light volume choppy trade. The feature of the day was small speculator selling. This was a quiet session. The option settled unchanged at 0.05. Hold Hold: December 2008 Live Cattle 110 calls (LCZ8C110) @ 2.80 points ($1120) No Stop. Profit-targets: PT1=5.60 ($2,240); PT2=7.00 ($2,800) Funds and technical traders sold cattle today despite improving fundamentals. Commodities across the board were soft as traders focus on collapsing world equity markets. This option was inactive today and was last offered at 0.025. Hold Hold: February 2009 Crude Oil 110 calls (CLG9C110) @ 100 No Stop. Profit-targets: PT1=230 ($2,300); PT2=360 ($3,600) Crude oil has broken out of the 60-70 dollar trading range as demand destruction has set in. The EIA estimated that demand growth will grind to a 15 year low. This option closed at 0.46. Hold Hold: March 2009 Coffee (KCH9) future @ 118.85 (Currently at 117.45) (Initial Margin $4,900) Temporary Stop=110.10($3282) Profit-targets: PT1=129.85 ($4125) Coffee closed 40 ticks lower as traders roll out of the December positions into March as the December contract goes into delivery. The March contract last traded 116.55. Hold Hold: January e-mini S&P future call option with a strike of 975 (ESF9C975) and sell one (1) January e-mini S&P future call option with a strike of 1010 (ESF9C1010) at a net price of 18.5 or better ($925). No Stop. Profit-target: PT 1= 27.75 (net gain of $462.50) Drip, drip, drip is the sound of the equity market as it exerts the old Chinese water torture on traders. The plethora of bad news continues. This spread was last quoted at 10.25. Hold Stopped Out: December Japanese yen (JYZ8) @ 102.00 Initial margin: $4,860 Stop: 104.00 (loss: $2,500 per contract) Profit-targets: PT1=99.00 ($3,750) PT2=97.00 ($6,250) The Yen rallied as traders unwound the carry trade. You should have been stopped out and canceled all orders associated with this trade. Hold: January 2009 soybean future (S F9) @ 917 (Initial Margin $4,725 per contract) Stop=887 ($1,500) Profit-target: PT1 =952 ($2,000) Soybeans traded on the defensive today as the U.S. dollar strengthened and equity markets grappled with the lingering credit crisis. January beans settled at 895.0 Hold http://www.jurojinweekly.com/go/library/update.aspx?UpdateID=472November 11, 2008 Daily Update We purposely had just one order for you in this week’s issue given the current elevated readings of volatility across all markets. In this week’s issue we suggested buying beans: Here’s the fill we received from Chicago and since it was entered at a more advantageous price, we have amended the exit prices in the order line. Finally, please note that we made a minor error on the profit objective, which has duly been corrected. January Soybeans: Buy One (1) January 2009 soybean future (S F9) @ 917 (Initial Margin $4,725 per contract) Stop= 887 ($1,500) Profit-target: PT1 =952 ($1,750) We’ll be back in action Wednesday with a full round-up. Good luck! http://www.jurojinweekly.com/go/library/update.aspx?UpdateID=471November 7, 2008 Daily Portfolio Activity: There was no actionable activity in the portfolio today. Here is an update on all your current open positions. Hold: Orange Juice: January 2009 Orange Juice 175 calls (OJF9175C) @ 5.25: No Stop: Profit-targets: PT1=7.50 ($1,125); PT2=10.50 ($1,575) Orange Juice reversed course at midsession today as traders reassessed weather maps. Hurricane Paloma, which is heading towards the Cayman Island and Cuba, is now expected to strengthen as it swirls through the Caribbean. Traders covered shorts as threat of a strike to Florida increases. This option settled at 0.05 Hold Hold: December 2008 Cocoa 35.00 calls (CCZ8C3500) @ 115 ($1,150) (Currently at 115) No Stop: Profit-targets: PT1=160 (gain: $450); PT2=240 (gain: $1,250). Cocoa traders covered short positions ahead of the weekend as dollar weakness prompted some buying. This option was unchanged 1.00. Hold Hold: December 2008 Live Cattle 110 calls (LCZ8C110) @ 2.80 points or better (Currently at 280 or $1120) No Stop. Profit-targets: PT1=5.60 ($2,240); PT2=7.00 ($2,800) Cattle firmed up today as traders rolled long positions from December to February. This option settled at 0.025. Hold Hold: February 2009 Crude Oil 110 calls (CLG9C110) @ 100 No Stop. Profit-targets: PT1=230 ($2,300); PT2=360 ($3,600) Crude oil is trading 12 ticks higher after having trading on both sides of unchanged today. Support is being drawn from dollar weakness and higher equity values. This option settled at 0.72. Hold Hold: March 2009 Coffee (KCH9) future @ 118.85 (Currently at 117.45) (Initial Margin $4,900) Temporary Stop= 110.10 ($3282) Profit-targets: PT1=129.85 ($4125) Coffee closed 1.40 higher as wet weather in Vietnam during harvest is bring up quality concerns for the new crop. It is worth noting that prices were inside yesterday’s price range. The March futures settled at 117.25. Hold Hold: January e-mini S&P future call option with a strike of 975 (ESF9C975) and sell one (1) January e-mini S&P future call option with a strike of 1010 (ESF9C1010) at a net price of 18.5 or better ($925). No Stop. Profit-target: PT 1= 27.75 (net gain of $462.50) S&P`s have been able to hold on to gains most of the day, but look to be closing off the highs. It is encouraging that equities held on to gains after today’s abysmal jobs report. The Department of Labor announced the U.S. economy shed 240,000 jobs last month. The average analyst estimate was 200,000. This spread traded last at 16.75. Hold Stay Short: December Japanese yen (JYZ8) @ 102.00 Initial margin: $4,860 Stop: 104.00 (loss: $2,500 per contract) Profit-targets: PT1=99.00 ($3,750) PT2=97.00 ($6,250) The Yen opened on highs today and spent most of the session grinding lower. The 102.04 level is key to watch as it represents the 200 day moving average. This line has proven to be formidable resistance. The December Yen settled at 102.00. Hold http://www.jurojinweekly.com/go/library/update.aspx?UpdateID=470November 6, 2008 Daily Portfolio Activity: In overnight trade you should have been filled on the Yen. The Yen rallied in tandem with the dollar as more carry trades are unwound. You should have sold the December Yen at 102. Be sure to place your stop and profit objective. Here is an update on all your current open positions. Hold: Orange Juice: January 2009 Orange Juice 175 calls (OJF9175C) @ 5.25: No Stop: Profit-targets: PT1=7.50 ($1,125); PT2=10.50 ($1,575) Juice gave back 50 ticks of yesterdays gains as traders grabbed quick gains. There is a weather concern that should keep support under the market as a system is building in the Caribbean. This option settled at 0.05. Hold Hold: December 2008 Cocoa 35.00 calls (CCZ8C3500) @ 115 ($1,150) (Currently at 115) No Stop: Profit-targets: PT1=160 (gain: $450); PT2=240 (gain: $1,250). Cocoa took it on the chin today as traders sold in response to dollar strength. This option closed unchanged at 1.00. Hold Hold: December 2008 Live Cattle 110 calls (LCZ8C110) @ 2.80 points or better (Currently at 280 or $1120) No Stop. Profit-targets: PT1=5.60 ($2,240); PT2=7.00 ($2,800) Cattle ground lower today as sell stop were hit as the market traded lower. Cattle has struggled along with other commodities as equity market trade lower. This option is settled at 0.050. Hold Hold: February 2009 Crude Oil 110 calls (CLG9C110) @ 100 No Stop. Profit-targets: PT1=230 ($2,300); PT2=360 ($3,600) Crude oil sold off over $4.00 today as demand is perceived to be weakening as world economies slow. Also a bearish natural gas number helped exert pressure on the energy sector. This option settled at 0.89. Hold Hold: March 2009 Coffee (KCH9) future @ 118.85 (Currently at 117.45) (Initial Margin $4,900) Temporary Stop= 110.10($3282) Profit-targets: PT1=129.85 ($4125) Coffee traded lower in response to weak equities and a strong U.S. dollar. A soft world economy could lead to lower consumption. The March futures contract last traded at 115.55. Hold Hold: January e-mini S&P future call option with a strike of 975 (ESF9C975) and sell one (1) January e-mini S&P future call option with a strike of 1010 (ESF9C1010) at a net price of 18.5 or better ($925). No Stop. Profit-target: PT1=27.75 (net gain of $462.50) S&P`s traded on the defensive today influenced by the weekly jobs numbers. They came in softer than analysts were expecting. This could foreshadow a poor number for the big monthly report tomorrow. The average estimate is for a loss of 200k non-farm payroll jobs. Goldman Sachs is estimating a loss of 300k. Tomorrow will be a key day for the equities. This spread last traded at 16.25. Hold. Stay Short: December Japanese yen (JYZ8) @ 102.00 Initial margin: $4,860 Stop: 104.00 (loss: $2,500 per contract) Profit-targets: PT1=99.00 ($3,750) PT2=97.00 ($6,250) The Yen rallied up to the 10 day moving average giving you the opportunity to enter your new position. You should have been filled on your sell order at 102.00. Be sure to place your stop and profit objectives. http://www.jurojinweekly.com/go/library/update.aspx?UpdateID=469November 5, 2008 Daily Portfolio Activity: After posting four consecutive higher closes the S&P`s pulled back this morning giving you the opportunity to get filled on your emini option spread. You should have bought the January Emini S&P 975-1010 call spread for 18.5 points. Be sure to place your profit objective. Also on the open you should have sold your January Crude puts. The fill is being recorded at a price of 1.00. This represents a loss of $1000.00 per contract before commissions. Be sure to cancel any other orders associated with this trade. Here is an update on all your current open positions. Hold: Orange Juice: January 2009 Orange Juice 175 calls (OJF9175C) @ 5.25: No Stop: Profit-targets: PT1=7.50 ($1,125); PT2=10.50 ($1,575) Juice rallied 275 points today as traders covered short positions. There are reports of a system building in Caribbean, which could hit Florida. This option was inactive and settled at 0.05. Hold Hold: December 2008 Cocoa 35.00 calls (CCZ8C3500) @ 115 ($1,150) (Currently at 115) No Stop: Profit-targets: PT1=160 (gain: $450); PT2=240 (gain: $1,250). Cocoa consolidated at lower levels today. Selling was tied to weak commodities and equity markets. This option was unchanged and settled at 1.00. Hold Hold: December 2008 Live Cattle 110 calls (LCZ8C110) @ 2.80 points or better (Currently at 280 or $1120) No Stop. Profit-targets: PT1=5.60 ($2,240); PT2=7.00 ($2,800) Cattle followed grain markets lower as thoughts of slowing demand permeated the trading pits. Higher U.S. dollar values early in the session weighed on prices. This option settled at 0.10. Hold Hold: February 2009 Crude Oil 110 calls (CLG9C110) @ 100 No Stop. Profit-targets: PT1=230 ($2,300); PT2=360 ($3,600) Crude oil is currently trading $5.00 lower as traders focus on slowing demand. Today’s inventory report was also deemed bearish as gasoline supplies rose when traders were looking for a decline. This option was inactive today and was last quoted at 75 bid and offered at 85. Hold Hold: March 2009 Coffee (KCH9) future @ 118.85 (Currently at 117.45) (Initial Margin $4,900) Temporary Stop = 110.10 ($3282) Profit-targets: PT1=129.85 ($4125) Coffee closed 30 ticks lower today in choppy trade. After putting in a fresh high for the move traders took profits and pressed the market lower. Later in the session traders bid prices off the lows as the charts look constructive. March futures last traded at 121.40. Hold Hold: January e-mini S&P future call option with a strike of 975 (ESF9C975) and sell one (1) January e-mini S&P future call option with a strike of 1010 (ESF9C1010) at a net price of 18.5 or better ($925). No Stop. Profit-target: PT1=27.75 (net gain of $462.50) S&P`s pulled back today on profit taking today. The market was getting overbought on the short-term charts. This gave you the ability to get filled on this position. This spread is currently trading at 20. Hold Entry: Sell the December Japanese yen (JYZ8) @ 102.00 Initial margin: $4,860 Stop: 104.00 (loss: $2,500 per contract) Profit-targets: PT1=99.00 ($3,750) PT2=97.00 ($6,250) The Yen has yet to hit the entry level. It came close last night before the Yen pulled back. Continue to work this order. http://www.jurojinweekly.com/go/library/update.aspx?UpdateID=468November 4, 2008 Daily Update Everything rallied today. Apparently risk aversion is a thing of the past. Volatility was sold across the board in line with a rally for equities and commodities. Heck, even government bond prices rallied thanks to increased appetite for mortgage related bonds. We’d anticipated this in today’s issue but the pre-market tone was too entrenched to allow us to enter either our short yen or bullish S&P index call spread. The reversal in crude oil prices and the change in sentiment towards the dollar force us to abandon our crude oil put position. We’re recommending you sell your puts Wednesday at the open. March Coffee: Buy One (1) March 2009 Coffee (KCH9) future @ 118.85 (Initial Margin $4,900) Stop=110.10 Profit-targets: PT1=129.85 ($4,125). Coffee rallied but we got in at 118.85 since this was a market order. Note the established single profit target. Hold. January S&P Call Spread: Buy one (1) January e-mini S&P future call option with a strike of 975 (ESZ8C975) and sell one (1) January e-mini S&P future call option with a strike of 1010 (ESZ8C1010) at a net price of 18.5 or better. No Stop. Profit-target: Maximum gain: 35 points or $1,750. It’s going to take an almighty comeback to get into this trade tomorrow since the market rallied back to 1,005 today. Keep working for now. December Yen: Sell the December Japanese yen (JYZ8) @ 102.00 Initial margin: $4,860 Stop: 104.00 (loss: $2,500 per contract) Profit-targets: PT1=99.00 ($3,750) PT2=97.00 ($6,250). We didn’t reach our entry point in Tuesday’s trade. Meanwhile risk appetite allowed for some return to the traditional carry trade in which low yielding currencies are sold in exchange for higher yielders. Hence, the Aussie and New Zealand dollars rallied and the greenback and yen declined. Just to show you how violent today’s reversal was, the December yen traded as low as 99.53, which isn’t a million miles away from our PT1. Keep working for now since the yen recovered to 100.51. SELL: January 2009 Crude Oil 50 put (CLF9P50) @ market. Sell to close your open position. The crude price reversal along with Saudi’s production cut leaves us nervous about a snapback. You still have exposure to this rally via your long February call position. Sell. Closed: November 2009 Soybean 1400 calls (S X9C1400) @ 30.0 (initial cost: $1,500) Stop: No stop Profit-targets: You should have been filled at a better price than we noted in today’s issue. We got news of a fill at 48 for a $900 per contract gain. Please cancel outstanding exit orders. We’ll be back in action Wednesday with a full round-up. Good luck!