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| Daily Jurojin - Tuesday, April 28, 2009 |
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Tuesday, April 28, 2009 The reach of a piggy coldBetween 20-40 million people died around the globe during the 1918-19 outbreak of what became known as Spanish 'flu. That compares to a four-year death toll estimated at between 9-16 million as a result of combat. La Grippe, as it was known killed millions quite literally overnight with some workers dying on the way to work coughing up a bloody froth and fighting for oxygen through constricted airways.The outbreak confirmed in both the U.S. and Canada, likely caused a similar fit in the Oval office where President Obama has been fighting influenza of the consumer, which has created a near enough terminal illness of its own. Monday's response to the Obama administration's declaration of a state of emergency was all too obvious. Investors clamored for the safe haven of the yen and the dollar. The Mexican peso was sold, since the epicenter is home to Mexico City. Fears of an escalation of the problem created the panic measures of closing movie theaters and bars, restaurants and public transport. Investors jumped into fixed income hoping that their money would be safe in bonds and notes. They sold the rebound theory creating weakness across equity markets for fear that the newborn rebound might get snuffed out all too quickly. Airline stocks were sold for fear that people would seek the sanctity of their own homes, refusing to venture out for ear of coming into contact with victims unwittingly spreading the infection. Investors bought shares in companies who manufacture immunizations to illnesses given the drastic shortage of available treatments. But who can blame people from acting this way? Herd mentality means that people follow each other. If they didn't lemmings wouldn't be lemmings, nor would opportunities arise. Cattle and hog prices all fell by their maximum daily limits today as investors feared that demand for meat would crater. Grain prices - what piggies eat - followed suit. Crude oil prices fell on fears that transportation would grind to a halt. According to Bloomberg News today, "A flu pandemic capable of killing more than 70 million people worldwide would push the world economy into a "major global recession" costing more than $3 trillion, the World Bank said in October in a revised estimate of a worst-case scenario." It's natural to tune into the news and it's natural to fear the worst. We can't pretend that we can predict how quickly or how slowly this latest epidemic will take to crawl back under the sand. But we would caution readers to think bigger picture and compare this situation to what happened in the immediate aftermath of the decimation of the twin trade towers in New York as well as the 2003 SARS epidemic. It will be no surprise next week or perhaps the week after to learn that things are under control. The Supreme Council of the Secret Order of Jurojin |
